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Economic recovery believed to be here, according to Fed
October 16th, 2009 2:34 PM

Minutes of a Federal Reserve meeting show that most policymakers believe that the economic recovery that everyone has been looking for has started. They admit that the turnaround is weak and some even want the central bank to help stimulate the economy by taking additional steps, according to an article in CNNMoney.

The minutes of the two-day meeting, concluded Sept. 23, were the most explicit statement yet that the Federal Open Market Committee now believes the recession that started in December 2007 is over. The committee comprises the group of Fed governors and district bank presidents who set interest rates and take other steps to spur or slow economic growth.

"Most thought an economic recovery was under way," the minutes stated. "Many participants noted that since August, they had revised up their projections for the second half of 2009 and for subsequent years."

Up to now, the Fed's statements have been more circumspect. Its statement , released at the end of the meeting, said simply that economic readings suggest "that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn."

This is the first time that Fed minutes explicitly said that most members believe the recession is over. However, in response to a question in an appearance at the Brookings Institution last month, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did say that the recession is "very likely over."

The decision on when a recession begins and ends is not up to the Federal Reserve, but instead the National Bureau of Economic Research. That group doesn't make any sort of declaration until months after the fact, in order to take into account final readings of various economic measures such as employment, income and industrial production.

For example, the NBER didn't declare that the recent recession had begun in December 2007 until a full year after the fact.

There is a growing consensus among outside economists that the recession is over. A survey of top forecasters by the National Association for Business Economics earlier this month found 81% believe the economy is in recovery.

Still, there was debate at the Fed's September meeting about what to do next. There was broad agreement that the fed funds rate, the key rate used to pump money into the economy, should be kept near 0%, and that the statement should say "economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."

Although many may disagree with the assertion that the economic recovery is in action there is also news of how many stimulus jobs have been created. Another article in CNNMoney commented on how much has been paid out and how many are benefitting.

The White House on Thursday unveiled the first hard data on how many jobs the $787 billion recovery act has created.

So far, companies that have received stimulus contracts directly from the federal government have created 30,383 jobs. These firms have been awarded $16 billion in contracts, and have actually been paid $2.2 billion.

Stimulus-fueled job creation has become a very controversial issue. The White House has faced blistering attacks by Republicans, who contend that the recovery act has failed to live up to its promise to put Americans back to work.

So far, the federal government has made available a total of $256.3 billion in contracts, grants and loans and has paid out $110.7 billion to state and local governments, non-profit agencies and companies. The reports released Thursday were the first in a series that provides a tally of the actual number of jobs created by the Recovery Act.

The data released was downplayed by the Obama administration, saying it is just a small amount of the stimulus that has been spent since February.

"It is too soon to draw any global conclusions from this partial and preliminary data...but the early indications are quite positive," said Jared Bernstein, chief economist for Vice President Joe Biden. "The direct count by Recovery Act recipients of jobs created or saved from this small percentage of the Recovery Act exceeds our projections."

The majority of stimulus funds spent so far have gone to state and local governments. Their reports will be released Oct. 30, though some governors have already revealed preliminary data. In California, for instance, stimulus funds received by state agencies have created or saved more than 100,000 jobs

Further complicating the tally is the differing methods used to calculate the number of stimulus jobs created. The White House said last month that just over 1 million jobs had been created or saved. But this figure includes both direct jobs and positions that exist to support stimulus-created jobs, such as the deli worker who supplies lunch to highway contractors.

The recipient reports cover only direct jobs, so their numbers will be lower.

A reminder that all is not perfect in the job market is given to us by Republican congressional leaders, pointing out that the unemployment rate is at 9.8%, the highest in 26 years.

"And I was really incredulous when the vice president said about the stimulus package a little while back, in -- and this is a direct quote -- 'In my wildest dreams, I never thought it would work this well'," said Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. "Well, we don't see any evidence whatsoever that the stimulus package is having an impact on this growing problem."


Posted by Leah Barr on October 16th, 2009 2:34 PMPost a Comment (0)

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