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Bank write-offs continue to increase as homes are being foreclosed on throughout the country. While everyone watches the larger institutions for a sign of recovery there is talk that this is only going to get worse before it gets better, according to Market Oracle.

We have seen some $505 billion in bank write-offs so far in this credit crisis. It is serious naiveté to assume that this will be the extent of it. Most of the write-offs have been mortgage-related. We have not yet seen the write-offs that will come as consumers start defaulting on credit cards, auto loans, and other consumer debt. Neither have we seen the losses that will come from commercial real estate or corporate loan as the recession progresses. You can't write off something until it goes bad, although you can increase your loan loss provisions. This of course hits earnings and your stock price and thus your ability to raise new equity. It presents a very difficult dilemma for bank managers and investors deciding whether to invest or go away.

Sober-minded analysis from the IMF suggests that the total write-offs by all banks may be $1 trillion. Dr. Nouriel Roubini is much more alarmed and puts the potential losses at closer to $2 trillion. That means that banks over time are going to have to increase their loan loss provisions, hitting both earnings and capital. And that means they will have to raise more investment capital and equity at a time when their stock prices are low.

It is a vicious spiral. Banks have less capital, so they are able to lend less to the very businesses that need the money; and without said money the businesses will be less capable of paying their current loans, which means that banks have less capital. Rinse and repeat.

That only prolongs the recession and Muddle Through Economy, which hurts consumers and corporate profits, which in turn puts more pressure on banks. Ultimately it means that banks are going to have to raise a lot more capital than anyone who is buying financial stocks today imagines. And it is largely going to be expensive capital. Look at this note from Bennet Sedacca of Atlantic Advisors:

"Financial entities like banks, broker/dealers, regional banks, finance companies, and insurance companies need credit at reasonable rates in order to finance themselves. I have been concerned for many years that the door would finally shut on banks, brokers and others to raise new capital in the debt markets.

It continues to discuss the problems with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as the estimates of just how badly the credit write-offs will be (estimated $850 billion). It seems that although we'd all like to see the light, we're not quite out of the woods yet.

The last few weeks have been encouraging, gas prices dropping and the economy appearing to make a comeback. Whether or not this change is simply temporary has many people concerned. A recent article in the LA Times has more on the argument.

Market bears would argue that economic readings are still weak, particularly for the average U.S. consumer. Other countries' economies are declining too, and the credit markets that companies rely on to borrow and lend remain tight.

But on the more positive side, prices for commodities including oil are much lower than they were a month ago. The housing market, though probably not due for recovery anytime soon, is showing signs of bottoming. And the stock market tends to rebound before the economy does.

It's easy to argue both sides; it's harder for an investor to decide where to put his money. That's why many market analysts are predicting that stocks are going to stay volatile for a while longer.

Back-and-forth movements are typical when the market is trying to put in a bottom, said Scott Wren, equity strategist for Wachovia Securities. Plus, he said, "you're getting a lot of mixed news."

Consumers have been buying fewer items, in general, because prices have been rising. Last week, the Labor Department reported a hefty 0.8% increase in consumer prices for July.

Wall Street's hope is that the pullback in oil will alleviate some of these pressures. But some economists believe that even if commodities stay down from their recent highs, it won't be enough to shield consumers from unmanageable prices.

"It's too early to be overly confident about the economy," said Dan Laufenberg, chief economist for Ameriprise Financial. "I still think inflation is the greatest risk to the economy."

He noted that although oil prices are down sharply from their mid-July record, they are still about 50% higher than a year ago. Moreover, he said, "inflation is starting to spill over into other goods and services."

How this will effect the banking industry is still to be determined but for now economists are not offering any rosy predictions.

And lastly -- though certainly at the front of investors' minds -- is the situation with the still-stumbling global banking system. Banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS last week augured further credit losses, while banking industry analysts reduced their earnings estimates again in anticipation of more dismal profits in the third quarter.

"A year from today, we'll still be talking about financial problems. It's not going away," said Alexander Paris, economist and market analyst for Barrington Research. "You're going to have a lot more bank failures."

After coming under criticism for their lending standards and a panicked withdraw of $1.3 billion by depositors, IndyMac is filing for liquidation of its remaining assets. An article on Bloomberg today discussed what this entails.

IndyMac's liabilities are between $100 million and $500 million, according to the Chapter 7 filing by the bank holding company yesterday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Los Angeles. IndyMac said it has less than 50 creditors, including law and accounting firms and other banks, none of whose outstanding claims were listed.

IndyMac was seized by U.S. regulators on July 11 after a run by depositors left the mortgage lender strapped for cash. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is running a successor institution, IndyMac Federal Bank, and regulators have said they intend to eventually sell the seized bank.

The FDIC ``has been in sole possession custody and control of all of the books and records of'' IndyMac Bancorp and the court filing was made without access to information that bankruptcy laws typically require, Chief Executive Officer Michael W. Perry said in court papers.

While banks are prohibited from filing for U.S. bankruptcy protection, bank holding companies aren't. Perry is Pasadena, California-based IndyMac Bancorp's sole remaining employee, according to the filing. The company has $50 million to $100 million in assets.

IndyMac Bancorp racked up almost $900 million in losses as home prices tumbled and foreclosures hit records. California ranked second among U.S. states, with one foreclosure filing for every 192 households in June, 2.6 times the national average.

IndyMac was the largest OTS-regulated savings and loan to fail and second-biggest financial institution to close behind Continental Illinois in 1984, according to the FDIC. The failure will cost the federal deposit insurance program that repays customers when a bank fails about $4 billion to $8 billion, the FDIC said in a statement last month.